ACTURCA

Agence France Presse — English, May 7, 2007 Monday          Türkçe

Florence Biedermann, Ankara

Nicolas Sarkozy’s election victory gives Turkey another reason to worry about its EU bid, but many here believe that once the new French president takes office, his pragmatism will outweigh his hostility to Ankara’s membership.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan voiced hopes Monday that the French leader would soften his position on Turkey’s European aspirations.

“We hope we will not see in our bilateral relations from now on the same attitudes that Sarkozy displayed during his election campaign regarding our European Union (accession) process and Turkish-French ties,” Erdogan said.

Sarkozy is staunchly opposed to Turkey joining the 27-member bloc, arguing that most of Turkey’s territory is in Asia and that the idea of a united Europe would be diluted if its borders stretch that far.

He instead advocates a “privileged partnership” between the EU and Turkey rather than full membership for the sizeable mainly Muslim nation.

Political commentator Dogu Ergil suggested Sarkozy could follow the example of German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who was also opposed to Turkey’s accession, but said she would abide by existing agreements between Ankara and Brussels once she took office in 2005.

Sarkozy had displayed a “certain opportunism in addressing the worries and fears of French voters,” Ergil said. “But once elected, politicians become statesmen and can no longer be personal.”

The mass-selling Milliyet newspaper echoed the same hope.

Sarkozy’s election “will increase the potential of already chilly Turkish-French ties to worsen… But it is not impossible for Sarkozy, who is more of a pragmatic politician than an ideologue, to change his stance once he becomes president.”

Questioned as to the possible impact of Sarkozy’s election, European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso indicated no change in the EU’s negotiations with Ankara.

“We negotiate with Turkey on the basis of a mandate that was decided unanimously… We recommend to member states only to take a decision on whether or not Turkey should join based on the results of these negotiations,” Barroso said.

But some Turkish analysts remain pessimistic.

“The conditions that were applied to the central European countries are no longer working with Turkey… Sarkozy’s election marks the arrival of the moment of truth when this de facto situation will transform into a legal one,” EU expert Cengiz Aktar said.

“Turkey’s accession talks appear to be going on but the process risks to halt officially in 2009 with the campaign for the European Parliament elections,” he said, adding that Sarkozy “will be probably the one to hammer the last nail into the coffin of Turkish-EU relations.”

In December, the EU froze talks with Turkey in eight of the 35 policy areas that candidates are required to complete, over Ankara’s rejection to grant trade priviliges to arch-rival Cyprus.

Turkey has managed to open only two chapters since it won the green light for talks in October 2005. It cannot formally close any chapter until the Cyprus dispute is resolved.

Foreign affairs expert Semih Idiz described Sarkozy as a “coarse representation of the basic fears and concerns of the French people” on issues such as the integration of Muslims and immigrants as well as Turkey’s eventual EU membership.

“The rise of a Muslim-populated country and the possibility of it having an equal say with France in the EU cannot be easy to swallow for ’sugar-coated crypto-fascists’,” he wrote in Milliyet.

Turkish-French ties have also been poisoned by France’s recognition of the massacre of Armenians between 1915 and 1918 in the dying days of the Ottoman Empire as an act of genocide.

According to the Turkish press, Sarkozy also said that if he was elected president, he would sign into law a bill, passed in the National Assembly in October, that makes it a jailable offense to deny the killings were genocide — a label Ankara fiercely rejects.