Dashed hopes for Turkish–Armenian rapprochement

Strategic Comments (The International Institute For Strategic Studies)

Volume 16, Comment 43, November 2010, pages 1-3

More than a year after the signature by Turkey and Armenia of protocols aimed at normalising bilateral relations, the agreements have yet to be ratified and the border between the two countries is still closed. Despite the efforts of the United States, Russia and the European Union, the short-term prospects for ratification are bleak. Key stumbling blocks include Turkey’s promise to Azerbaijan not to reopen the border until Armenia gives up control over the areas around Nagorno-Karabakh – the disputed enclave in Azerbaijan occupied by Armenia since a 1992–94 conflict – and the campaign for the 1915 massacre of Armenians by Ottoman forces to be recognised as ‘genocide’. The success of any diplomatic rapprochement will also require a shift in popular opinion on both sides of the border.

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