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The Turkey-Syria military balance 20 mai 2012

Posted by Acturca in Middle East / Moyen Orient, Turkey / Turquie.
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Jane’s Islamic Affairs Analyst, May 2012, p. 9-11

Soner Çağaptay and Coşkun Ünal

The influx of Syrian refugees into Turkey has led Ankara to consider military action. Soner Çağaptay and Coşkun Ünal assess the military capabilities of Turkey and Syria, and whether a conflict is likely.
Public statements by senior Turkish officials have raised the possibility of Turkish military action against Syria after the number of Syrian refugees entering the country reached 25,000 in April.

Ankara has hinted at the possibility of establishing a buffer zone or safe haven inside Syria to defend the civilian population and contain the developing humanitarian crisis on the border.

Turkey’s final decision on intervention will be shaped as much by regional and global politics, as whether Ankara believes it can defeat the Syrian military.


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