Turkey’s Time in Syria: Future Scenarios

Middle East Brief (Crown Center for Middle East Studies) No. 63, May 2012

Joshua W. Walker *

As the ongoing humanitarian disaster unfolds in Syria, Turkey is increasingly placed in the international hot seat. With strong strategic and economic ties to Syria, the government in Ankara is in a key position to affect Syria’s future.However, so far Turkey has remained cautious, weighing its policy options carefully. In this Brief, Dr. Joshua Walker presents both a historical account of Turkish-Syrian relations and also the current Turkish policy regarding the escalating civil war in Syria. It concludes by laying out two alternative scenarios for Ankara: a limited military intervention in Syria through a buffer zone coupled with covert assistance to the Free Syrian Army; or, a full internationally sanctioned and supported military intervention.

* Joshua W. Walker is a Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund based in Washington, D.C. and was a Junior Research Fellow at the Crown Center in 2010-2011

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