Three Troubling Scenarios for Turkey and Transatlantic Partners

German Marshall Fund of the United States, September 14, 2012, 4 p.

Ian Lesser *

Almost two years on from the start of the Arab Spring, the situation across the Middle East and the Mediterranean continues to produce worrisome security challenges for Turkey and Ankara’s transatlantic partners. Amid these destabilizing changes, three scenarios stand out, and could prove transformative for the security environment in and around Turkey, with no less important implications for Europe and the United States. First, Syria’s civil war could drag on for as long as a decade, further destabilizing an already fragile neighborhood. Second, Iran could develop, or come close to developing, a nuclear weapon. Finally, tensions in Cyprus and the Eastern Mediterranean could escalate from a simmer to a boil.

* Dr. Ian O. Lesser is executive director of the Transatlantic Center, the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States. The
opinions expressed here are the author’s, and do not necessarily reflect the views of GMF.

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