The Turkish-Israeli Relations in 2013: Modest Expectations

Middle Eastern Analysis (ORSAM) Vol. 5, No 49,  January 2013, pages 10-20

Dr. Can Kasapoğlu *

The Turkish – Israeli relations have never been perfectly stable throughout the history, and fluctuation between certain extremes has always been a characteristic factor. However, the flotilla incident caused an anomaly by inflicting deaths of Turkish citizens, and harming people to people relations significantly. The democratic political systems of both Turkey and Israel makes public opinion a crucial parameter of bilateral ties, and any open restoration attempts should secure public support that makes it complicated. On the other hand, current regional security environment is not the same with that of 2010. Put simply, Bouazizi was struggling for his hard life in Tunis when the flotilla incident happened. Within two years, we have dictators fallen in the Arab world, and a civil war is ongoing in Syria. Thus, despite the constraints of restoration, there might be a need for limited security cooperation between Turkey and Israel. As militaries prepare for the last battle, strategists tend to think within the framework of the last status quo, namely, the Turkish – Israeli entente in the 1990s. However, this study suggests another scenario for a forecast on the trajectory of the Turkish – Israeli relations in 2013; another cooperation model that could be found deep in history, the Peripheral Pact of 1958…

* BESA Center at Bar-Ilan University

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