Adaptation to Climate Change in the Southern Mediterranean: A Theoretical Framework, a Foresight Analysis and Three Case Studies

MEDPRO Technical Report (MEDPRO) No. 27, February 2013, 95 p.

Daniel Osberghaus, Claudio Baccianti *

Adaptation to climate change in southern and eastern Mediterranean countries is particularly relevant because of the strong expected effects on the region and the sensitivity of important sectors like agriculture and tourism to climate change. This work analyses qualitative scenarios with the support of insights from the theoretical literature and information collected from case studies about Tunisia, Egypt and Turkey. We deal with several dimensions of adaptation, including the role of the government, equity, uncertainty and linkages with mitigation. In general, we conclude that inaction is not a viable option and this report shows how adaptation policy should be designed. We identify major areas of intervention, from removing barriers to private adaptation to the fostering of international cooperation.

* Daniel Osberghaus and Claudio Baccianti are researchers at the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in Mannheim. This paper includes contributions from Aurélie Domisse, Beyhan Ekinci, Christian Hengesbach, Max Pohl and Daniel Ruhnow, interns and research assistants at ZEW.

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