Skating on Thin Ice: The Political Economy of Turkish Foreign Policy over the Last Decade

Analysis (ISPI) No. 226, December 2013
Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale (ISPI)

Mustafa Kutlay *

The aim of this paper is to discuss the economic drivers of Turkish foreign policy with a particular emphasis on the question of sustainability in the medium-term timeframe. It highlights that Turkish government has to fight on two fronts simultaneously: First, the immediate concern is to protect its trade and investment links with Middle East and North African countries in a turbulent post-Arab Spring era. Second front is its domestic political economy challenges, with the middle-income and illiberal democracy traps in particular posing real tests for Turkey’s regional power strategy over the next decade. In this context, the paper argues that a short supply of foreign policy pragmatism and domestic reconciliation may cause Turkey to operate well below the efficient frontier in both realms.

* Mustafa Kutlay is Research Fellow at the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK). He is currently a visiting research fellow at Royal Holloway, University of London.

Download full text (Format Pdf)