Explaining Variation in Public Support to Turkey’s EU Accession, Turco-skepticism in Europe: A Multi-Level Analysis

MAXCAP Working Paper (Freie Universität Berlin) No. 4, July 2014

Emre Hatipoglu, Meltem Müftüler-Baç and Ekrem Karakoç *

The paper tries to parse out the determinants of the European public’s attitudes to Turkey’s accession. The factor analyses suggest that the attitudes of European individuals towards Turkey’s accession are grouped under two main dimensions: utilitarian and normative. Furthermore, the authors posit and test the possibility that individuals’ attitudes towards Turkey may also be shaped by the national political context they are immersed in. The findings indicate that individuals who believe that Turkey belongs to Europe culturally and who believe that its EU membership will provide more benefits to the EU tend to be more pro-accession. An inverse relationship exists between individuals’ belief that Turkey will benefit from EU membership and their support for Turkey’s accession. The most important country-level factor affecting the level of turco-skepticism in a member state seems to be the level of Turkish migrants in its population. Finally, the ideological stance of the government amplifies the effect political ideology of individuals has on their belief about Turkey’s accession.

Edited by the MAXCAP Project « Maximizing the integration capacity of the European Union: Lessons of and prospects for enlargement and beyond » (MAXCAP) The MAXCAP Working Paper Series serves to disseminate the research results of the research consortium by making them available to a broader public. It means to create new and strengthen existing links within and between the academic and the policy world on matters relating to the current and future enlargement of the EU.

* Meltem Müftüler-Baç is professor of International Relations and Jean Monnet Chair at Sabanci University, Istanbul, Turkey. Emre Hatipoğlu holds a BA from Boğaziçi University, an MA from Sabancı University, and obtained his PhD from the Pennsylvania State University. Dr. Hatipoğlu’s research employs quantitative and formal methods to examine the intersection of domestic politics and foreign policy. Ekrem Karakoç is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at Binghamton University, SUNY.

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