The Economic Effeects of Syrian Refugees on Turkey: A Synthetic Modelling

ORSAM Report, No: 196, January 2015                                                                      Türkçe
Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM)

Prepared by Assoc. Prof. Harun Öztürkler & Assoc. Prof. Türkmen Göksel

This report analyzes the economic effects of Syrian refugees in two dimensions. First of all, on the basis of the synthetic modelling method, it estimates the time paths of economic variables such as net migration rate, foreign trade, employment, education services, health services, and housing in immensely refuge receiving provinces, namely Gaziantep, Hatay, Kilis, Şanlıurfa, Mersin, Adana, Kahramanmaraş, Osmaniye, and then compares it with the actual values of these variables. The difference reflects the effects of Syrian refuges on these variables. The second dimension of the study is based on the face to face interviews with locals in Gaziantep, Hatay, Kilis, and Şanlıurfa. Through these interviews, the study attempts to measure and assess the locals’ perceptions regarding the effects of refugees on these variables. Whether or not the integration of refugees will be a smooth process will depend not only on legal and institutional frameworks and provisions but also refugees’ economic, social and demographic characteristics. Therefore, the study conducted face to face interviews with Syrian refugees living outside the cams in Gaziantep, Hatay, Kilis, and Şanlıurfa in order to gather information about their education levels, employment status, income levels, food and rent expenditures, and if their children receive education.

* Assoc. Prof. Harun Öztürkler, ORSAM Economy Advisor, Kırıkkale University & Assoc. Prof. Türkmen Göksel, Ankara University

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