New Turkey or New Government? The June 2015 Parliamentary Election

Report (Bipartisan Policy Center) June 2015

National Security Program

In August 2014, upon his ascension from prime minister to Turkey’s first directly-elected president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan heralded the creation of a “New Turkey.” Whether Erdoğan and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) can achieve that ambition or whether there will be a shift in power in Turkey—to an AKP-led coalition government or potentially even a government without the AKP—will be determined on June 7, 2015, when Turks go to the polls to elect a new parliament. The outcome of the voting will likely be decided by two dynamics: the performance of the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP); and the freedom of the election. In turn, two additional factors will play a major role in determining what the impact final vote tally is on Turkey’s trajectory: the HDP’s political strategy; and the relationship of Erdoğan to his prime minister, Ahmet Davutoğlu. Regardless of the outcome, polarization and social tensions in Turkey are almost certain to rise—and potentially boil over—while, at least in the short-term, the troubled U.S.-Turkey relationship is unlikely to improve.

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