A “Super Presidency” or a Parliamentary Democracy after Elections in Turkey?

Bulletin PISM, no. 57 (789), 3 June 2015
The Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM)

Pinar Elman *

The 7 June parliamentary elections will be the most critical for Turkey in recent years. The ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) is unlikely to get a sufficient majority to introduce a strong presidential system without checks and balances, and may even fail to form the government alone. The composition of the new parliament will depend greatly on the success of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP). Whether the resulting government is formed by a majority or by a coalition it may not bring the expected stability, but will rather define the level of centralisation of power around the president, and therefore the risk factor in the long term.

* Pinar Elman is an analyst at the Polish Institute of International Affairs.

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