Can Erdogan Stay at the Helm? 1 juin 2015
Posted by Acturca in Turkey / Turquie.Tags: AKP, HDP, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Soner Cagaptay, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
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Policy Notes (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) No.25, May 2015
Soner Cagaptay *
On June 7, Turkey will hold national parliamentary elections. The ruling Justice and Develop – ment Party (AKP), which has led the country since 2002, will almost certainly win this race. Ironically while an AKP victory is certain, it is difficult to estimate the number of seats the party will win in the Turkish legislature. (suite…)
Turkey and Egypt’s Great Game in the Middle East 8 mars 2015
Posted by Acturca in Middle East / Moyen Orient, Turkey-EU / Turquie-UE.Tags: Egypt, Marc Sievers, Soner Cagaptay
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Foreign Affairs (Council on Foreign Relations) March 8, 2015
By Soner Cagaptay and Marc Sievers *
The chaos in the Middle East has tested many relationships, not least the one between Egypt and Turkey. Shortly after the fall of Hosni Mubarak in 2011, Turkey became one of Egypt’s chief regional supporters. (suite…)
Turkey’s Kurdish Path 5 mars 2015
Posted by Acturca in Middle East / Moyen Orient, Turkey / Turquie, USA / Etats-Unis.Tags: HDP, Iraq, ISIS, Kobani, Kurdistan Regional Government, Kurds, PKK, PYD, Soner Cagaptay, Syria, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
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Policy Notes (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) No.23, March 2015
Soner Cagaptay *
Arab Spring success stories have generally not been easy to come by. One, however, may be playing out in a regional non-Arab state, Turkey, where ties between the Turks and their adversary, the Kurds, have been improving. (suite…)
Turkey to Vote on Syria Policy 1 octobre 2014
Posted by Acturca in Middle East / Moyen Orient, Turkey / Turquie, USA / Etats-Unis.Tags: ISIS, Kurdish regional government, PKK, Soner Cagaptay, Syria
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Policy Analysis (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) N° 2317, Oct 1, 2014
Soner Cagaptay *
Turkey has thus far avoided overt participation in the international airstrikes against ISIS, reflecting its continued vulnerability to the group and its complex policy priorities in neighboring Syria. (suite…)
Revealing Trends in Turkey’s Presidential Election 8 septembre 2014
Posted by Acturca in Turkey / Turquie, USA / Etats-Unis.Tags: AKP, CHP, Ege Cansu Sacikara, presidential election, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Soner Cagaptay, Talya Yuzucu, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
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Research Notes (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) No. 23, September 2014
Soner Cagaptay with Ege Cansu Sacikara and Talya Yuzucu *
On August 10, Recep Tayyip Erdogan continued his prolific electoral run by collecting almost 52 percent of the vote in Turkey’s presidential poll, easily besting his chief rival, Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, who represented the left-right CHP/MHP coalition. (suite…)
Turkey’s Middle-East Dream Becomes a Nightmare 4 septembre 2014
Posted by Acturca in Middle East / Moyen Orient, Turkey / Turquie, Turkey-EU / Turquie-UE.Tags: Ahmet Davutoglu, AKP, Egypt, foreign policy, Iran, Iraq, Muslim Brotherhood, Soner Cagaptay, Syria
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The Wall Street Journal Europe (USA) September 4, 2014, p. 13
By Soner Cagaptay *
Ankara’s efforts to become a regional power player have backfired. It’s time to renew old partnerships instead. (suite…)
Turks in Europe and Kurds in Turkey Could Elect Erdogan 24 juillet 2014
Posted by Acturca in Immigration, Middle East / Moyen Orient, Turkey / Turquie.Tags: Ege Cansu Sacikara, presidential election, Soner Cagaptay, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
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Policy Analysis (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) N° 2291, July 23, 2014
Soner Cagaptay and Ege Cansu Sacikara *
Erdogan’s strategy in the August presidential polls envisions strong support among European Turks in the first round of voting, and backing from nationalist Kurds in case of a second round. (suite…)
The Impact of Syria’s Refugees on Southern Turkey Revised and Updated 13 juillet 2014
Posted by Acturca in Middle East / Moyen Orient, Turkey / Turquie.Tags: Bilge Menekse, refugees, Soner Cagaptay, Syra, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
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Policy Focus (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) No. 130, July 2014 – revised and updated
Soner Cagaptay, with Bilge Menekse *
Since Policy Focus 130 was first published in October 2013, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Turkey has nearly doubled, from roughly 440,000 to 747,000. (suite…)
Turkey’s Presidential Prospects: Assessing Recent Trends 23 mai 2014
Posted by Acturca in Turkey / Turquie.Tags: AKP, Kurds, local elections, presidential election, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Soner Cagaptay, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
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Research Notes (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) No. 18, May 2014
Soner Cagaptay *
If Erdogan hopes to become Turkey’s first directly elected president, he will need to continue courting Kurdish voters and burnishing his economic and populist credentials. (suite…)
Turkey’s 2014 Political Transition – From Erdogan to Erdogan? 14 janvier 2014
Posted by Acturca in Turkey / Turquie.Tags: AKP, elections, James F. Jeffrey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Soner Cagaptay, Washington Institute for Near East Policy
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Policy Notes, No. 17, January 2014 Türkçe
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Soner Cagaptay & James F. Jeffrey *
In 2014, Turkey will hold two key nationwide elections: one on March 30 for local government and city officials and a second one for president, to conclude by August 28 (see Appendix 1 for details) . (suite…)
The E.U. Needs Turkey 21 décembre 2013
Posted by Acturca in Economy / Economie, Turkey / Turquie, Turkey-EU / Turquie-UE.Tags: EU membership, Soner Cagaptay, Turkey’s EU accession process
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International New York Times (USA) December 21, 2013, p. 9
Soner Cagaptay *
Istanbul – The Turks are increasingly hubristic, and not just in the Middle East. Having seen their total G.D.P. more than double in the past decade, many Turks do not feel that they need the European Union anymore. (suite…)
Turkey’s Energy Policy and the Future of Natural Gas 15 décembre 2013
Posted by Acturca in Caucasus / Caucase, Economy / Economie, Energy / Energie, Middle East / Moyen Orient, Turkey / Turquie.Tags: AKP, Center for Energy Studies, energy, gas, geopolitics, Harvard University’s Belfer Center, Rice University’s Baker Institute, Soner Cagaptay, Tyler Evans
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Study (Center for Energy Studies) December 16, 2013
Harvard University’s Belfer Center & Rice University’s Baker Institute Center for Energy Studies
By Soner Cagaptay and Tyler Evans *
Buoyed by a decade of economic growth, Turkey is more prosperous than ever before. At the forefront of this transformation, Turkey’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) has reaped the rewards of economic success and political prestige. (suite…)
Analysis: Turkey’s ‘worthy solitude’ sidelines Erdogan in Middle East 18 septembre 2013
Posted by Acturca in Middle East / Moyen Orient, Turkey / Turquie.Tags: diplomacy, Egypt, foreign policy, Ibrahim Kalin, Middle East, Muslim Brotherhood, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Sinan Ülgen, Soner Cagaptay, Turkey
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Reuters (UK) September 18, 2013
By Nick Tattersall, Istanbul
Clinging to calls for military action in Syria and wedded to his backing for Egypt’s ousted Islamist president, Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan cuts an increasingly lonely figure in a region whose future he still hopes to help shape. (suite…)
Egypt-Turkey-Kurds 16 août 2013
Posted by Acturca in Middle East / Moyen Orient, Turkey / Turquie.Tags: Egypt, Kurds, Michael Werz, Muslim Brotherhood, Soner Cagaptay, Turkey
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Voice of America (VOA) August 16, 2013
Encounter
From Tunisia to Egypt, the “Arab Spring” uprisings ousted autocrats and catapulted several Islamist movements to positions of power. (suite…)
Tempered Islamism 30 avril 2013
Posted by Acturca in Middle East / Moyen Orient, Turkey / Turquie.Tags: AKP, Al-Qaeda, Islamism, James Jeffrey, Middle East, NATO, Soner Cagaptay, Syria, Turkey
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The Majalla (UK, UAE) Tuesday, 30 April, 2013 العربية
James Jeffrey & Soner Cagaptay *
Despite its Islamist government and increasingly religious rhetoric, history, geography and culture are combining to prevent Turkey Islamizing to the degree seen in other Arab countries. (suite…)
Turkey’s foray into the Fertile Crescent 28 février 2013
Posted by Acturca in Middle East / Moyen Orient, Turkey / Turquie.Tags: Iran, Iraq, Kurds, Middle East, PKK, Soner Cagaptay, Syria, Turkey
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International Herald Tribune (USA) Thursday, February 28, 2013, p. 6
By Soner Cagaptay *
The biggest open secret in Ankara is that Turkey detests Iran, which it sees as undermining its interests in Syria and Iraq. Turkish leaders will not admit this publicly, for their country desperately needs Iranian natural gas and oil to continue its phenomenal economic growth. (suite…)
The New Turkey and U.S. Policy 13 janvier 2013
Posted by Acturca in Middle East / Moyen Orient, Turkey / Turquie, USA / Etats-Unis.Tags: AKP, foreign policy, Kurds, Middle East, NATO, Soner Cagaptay, Turkey, USA
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Strategic Reports 11 (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) Jan 2013
Soner Cagaptay *
As Turkey moves toward municipal, presidential, and parliamentary elections over the next three years, all signs point to the ruling Justice and Development Party retaining power for another decade and continuing its effort to mold the country in its Islamist image. (suite…)
Turkey’s Changing Relations with Iraq: Kurdistan Up, Baghdad Down 25 octobre 2012
Posted by Acturca in Economy / Economie, Energy / Energie, Middle East / Moyen Orient, Turkey / Turquie, USA / Etats-Unis.Tags: energy, Iraq, Kurds, Middle East, oil, Soner Cagaptay, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Turkey, Tyler Evans, USA
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Policy Focus (The Washington Institute for Near East Policy) No. 122, Oct 2012
Soner Cagaptay and Tyler Evans *
Turkey’s ties with the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq have reached a level unimaginable a few years ago. From rapidly growing business and oil deals to numerous high-level diplomatic visits, Ankara is in the midst of an unprecedented rapprochement with the Iraqi Kurds, one that has come largely at the expense of the Maliki government in Baghdad. (suite…)
Cyprus scenario least desirable for Erdogan 20 octobre 2012
Posted by Acturca in Middle East / Moyen Orient, Turkey / Turquie.Tags: conflicts, Cyprus, Middle East, PKK, PYD, Soner Cagaptay, Syria, Turkey
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Gulf News (UAE) October 20, 2012, p. D5
In Focus: In Search of the Right Game Plan
Soner Cagaptay *
Staging a limited invasion to contain the crisis, like it did in the 1970s, may notwork as the cost of intervention in Syria will be high now. (suite…)
Military Implications of the Syria-Turkey Border Incident 5 octobre 2012
Posted by Acturca in Middle East / Moyen Orient, Turkey / Turquie, USA / Etats-Unis.Tags: Andrew J. Tabler, conflicts, Free Syrian Army, Jeffrey White, Soner Cagaptay, Syria, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, Turkey, USA
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Policy Watch, No. 1988, Oct 5, 2012 العربية Türkçe
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Jeffrey White, Soner Cagaptay, and Andrew J. Tabler *
Syria’s errant mortar strike is an opportunity for Washington to support Turkey in a more aggressive approach to the ongoing crisis next door. (suite…)
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